In light of the continuing devastating war in Sudan, the danger of a new confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms on the horizon, which could push the Horn of Africa region into a comprehensive conflict during the year 2026.
Observers believe that the outbreak of a direct confrontation between the two countries, this time through strong regular armies, would have a disastrous impact on regional stability, as it could lead to:
- Exacerbating humanitarian crises in a region already suffering from displacement and hunger.
- Threatening international navigation in the Red Sea, one of the most important global trade lanes.
- Igniting broader regional conflicts through the involvement of neighboring countries and international powers seeking to protect their strategic interests.
Experts point out that Ethiopia is seeking to enhance its access to the Red Sea, while Eritrea considers these movements an existential threat, which increases the possibility of escalation, and that any new confrontation between Addis Ababa and Asmara will not be just a bilateral dispute, but may turn into a large-scale regional war, increasing the fragility of the Horn of Africa and putting it on the brink of a comprehensive explosion.
