Shaima Hassan Ali, a researcher specializing in African affairs
Nigerian and international media assessed the effects of the US strikes in northwestern Nigeria, and civil society organizations documented the extent of the panic and violations caused by those strikes on Christmas.
On the other hand, some reports spoke of the intelligence failure experienced by the Nigerian and American security services in targeting ISIS terrorist organization sites, as well as the failure of the strikes themselves in achieving their alleged goals, by targeting terrorists accused of massacres against Christians.
This report discusses the repercussions of the US strike in Nigeria and its impact on local communities, as follows:
Firstly: American strikes cause a mass exodus
According to the “Human Angle” organization, the strikes came in the middle of the night, between twelve and one-thirty in the morning, and according to field testimonies from some of those fleeing within the targeted areas, which are mostly civilian areas and populated by Muslims, thousands of civilians fled, and what made the matter more complicated was the spread of misleading information that sparked panic among citizens. As soon as the strikes occurred, rumors spread, causing the local communities to flee, especially the “Birkini” village, which belongs to the town of “Jabu” in the state of “Sokoto” also caused an increase in waves of mass displacement from neighboring villages, about 18 villages in the “Tambowal” area, where residents believed that they were being subjected to a fierce American attack, as rumors spread in the region that the American government was targeting villages with a Muslim majority in “Nigeria.” What contributed to fueling these rumors was their widespread spread on social media sites, in addition to the lack of coordination between the federal government and local governments in taking measures to protect analysts as a result of these strikes. This hypothesis and these events undermine the idea that the strikes It came within a joint security arrangement and coordination between Nigeria and the United States. What fuels this hypothesis is the conflict in the two stories. The Nigerian government repeatedly confirmed that the operation was “joint” and came within the framework of organized and long-term security cooperation with Washington, based on its request and intelligence. Foreign Minister Yusuf Togar strongly denied that the operation had any religious dimension, saying, “This is a joint operation and has nothing to do with a specific religion.” In contrast to this, US President Donald Trump presented the strikes as a response to what he described as the “genocide of Christians” in Nigeria, claiming that the militants were targeting “mainly innocent Christians.”
Second: Intelligence and operational failure
Some media outlets documented pictures of empty projectiles and American Tomahawk cruise missiles that failed to reach their targets during the American strikes, as the American Africa Command claims that they targeted ISIS sites in Nigeria. Debris and unexploded missiles were found in the vicinity of the city of Ufa. The published photos showed fragments identical to “Tomahawk” missiles, including intact WDU-36/B warheads. A report by the “Militarnyi” website indicated that the reason for the presence of unexploded warheads could be due to a technical defect, as detonators prevent detonation if the missile deviates from its programmed path, which reduces unintended damage but leaves unexploded ordnance on the ground. Tomahawk missiles are considered one of the most widely used American weapons for long-range precision strikes, and their failure incidents are rare but not impossible, especially in complex operational environments, which is what characterizes this region, as the precedents of the Nigerian army, especially the air force, have caused innocent victims from local communities, due to weak intelligence and information gathering in these areas. It is likely that the complex operational environment limits the ability to collect intelligence information, and according to some data and information, the strike targeted the Pawnee forest area. This was the use of “Tomahawk” missiles launched from an American warship in the Gulf of Guinea, in addition to strikes carried out by “MQ-9 Reaper” drones.
Third: The nature of the threats in northwest Nigeria
Threats in the Nigerian northwest have always revolved around the idea of armed robbery, terrorism by criminal gangs, cattle rustling, and recently the emergence of the “Lakwara” group, which is considered a hybrid threat between the threat of criminal gangs and extremist ideological groups, which act as support networks for terrorist organizations such as ISIS, Sahel State. In any case, terrorism cannot be eliminated with lightning air strikes and weak intelligence, which has caused repeated violations among villagers and members of the local community. Rather, terrorism as a problem is Primarily political, it requires effective efforts such as improving governance and understanding the requirements and needs of local communities. While the security and military solution may represent 30% of the solution to the problem, the greatest burden falls on better government responses.
Overall, the repercussions of US strikes in northwestern Nigeria show that excessive reliance on brute military force, in isolation from careful local coordination and a deep understanding of societal complexities, only exacerbates humanitarian crises and deepens the gap of trust between state and citizen. The transformation of military operations into a source of terror and mass displacement, and their feeding of rumors of a sectarian nature, gives extremist groups and criminal organizations a fertile environment for recruitment and spread under the cover of “oppression.”
The lesson learned from these strikes is that combating terrorism in a complex environment like Nigeria cannot be reduced to Tomahawk missiles or drones. The military solution - despite its importance - represents only a small part of the stability equation. A successful strategy necessarily requires comprehensive political and economic reforms, improved governance, and investment in human intelligence gathering rather than relying entirely on technology that may miss its targets. Ultimately, stability will remain elusive unless the security approach shifts from “liquidating targets” to “protecting people” and meeting the needs of local communities that find themselves stuck in a conflict in which they have no choice but to do so.
